Explore whether appearing unpredictable can make leaders more powerful. Drawing on international security research and historical case studies, this webinar examines the so-called "madman strategy", revealing why recklessness can undermine credibility, fuel mistrust and backfire in high-stakes negotiations, diplomacy and international conflict.
Does it help a leader to seem unpredictable, reckless, or even irrational? Many leaders across history have believed so. In their mind, it can be helpful to make an adversary believe you might do almost anything and accept extraordinary costs in doing so, as this will force the adversary to think twice before challenging you. This talk challenges this view, however, showing why the strategy is less effective than it first appears. Drawing on research in international security and bargaining theory, it explores three recurring problems. First, unpredictability makes signalling difficult because opponents may not understand what the 'madman' is up to. Second, extreme threats often lack credibility. Finally, even a credible threat may fail if the target doubts that compliance will actually bring safety. A leader who appears impossible to satisfy can encourage resistance rather than concession. These problems recur throughout history, and we will examine several notable examples involving Richard Nixon, Nikita Khrushchev, Muammar Gaddafi as well as the more recent madman tactics employed by Donald Trump. Across these cases, we will see when unpredictability creates bargaining leverage and when it instead generates confusion and mistrust. Along the way, we will explore how political scientists use theory and historical evidence to evaluate seemingly intuitive claims about power, deterrence, and international bargaining.
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Our Super-Curricular Webinar Series explores a range of fascinating topics, giving you the chance to hear from University academics. Discover new perspectives, explore current issues, and gain insight into how these topics are studied and applied in higher education and beyond.
All webinars will be recorded. If you sign up you will be able to access the recording after the event.
All webinars will be recorded so if sign up then you will be able to gain access to the recording after the event.